The R package pltesim calculates and depicts probabilistic long-term effects in binary models with temporal dependence variables. The package performs two tasks. First, it calculates the change in the probability of the event occurring given a change in a theoretical variable. Second, it calculates the rolling difference in the future probability of the event for two scenarios: one where the event occurred at a given time and one where the event does not occur. The package is consistent with the recent movement to depict meaningful and easy-to-interpret quantities of interest with the requisite measures of uncertainty. It is the first to make it easy for researchers to interpret shortand long-term effects of explanatory variables in binary autoregressive models, which can have important implications for the correct interpretation of these models.
Supplementary materials are available in addition to this article. It can be downloaded at RJ-2017-059.zip
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For attribution, please cite this work as
Gandrud & Williams, "The R Journal: Simulating Probabilistic Long-Term Effects in Models with Temporal Dependence", The R Journal, 2017
BibTeX citation
@article{RJ-2017-059,
author = {Gandrud, Christopher and Williams, Laron K.},
title = {The R Journal: Simulating Probabilistic Long-Term Effects in Models with Temporal Dependence},
journal = {The R Journal},
year = {2017},
note = {https://doi.org/10.32614/RJ-2017-059},
doi = {10.32614/RJ-2017-059},
volume = {9},
issue = {2},
issn = {2073-4859},
pages = {401-408}
}